Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Miami Marlins travel to Citi Field on 31 May for a day game against the New York Mets, with first pitch at 1:40 PM ET. The 42% implied probability for a Marlins victory reflects their position as road underdogs against a Mets side that has shown inconsistent form through the 2026 season. Recent performance metrics favour New York marginally, though neither team has established sustained dominance in their division matchups.

Historical head-to-head records between these National League East rivals show relatively balanced competition over the past three seasons, with home-field advantage typically worth 3–5 percentage points in win probability. The Mets' record at Citi Field this season sits above .500, whilst the Marlins have struggled on the road, winning fewer than 40% of away contests. Injury status will prove decisive: New York's rotation depth and bullpen availability heading into late May directly impacts starting pitcher quality, whilst Miami's outfield composition affects offensive ceiling. Recent roster moves or suspensions affecting either lineup warrant close monitoring through the settlement window.

Traders should track official lineup announcements released 24 hours before first pitch, as late scratches or unexpected roster changes frequently shift market probabilities by 2–4 points. Weather conditions at Citi Field—particularly wind direction affecting fly-ball distances—can favour either team's offensive profile. Pitching matchup confirmation, expected around 48 hours prior, will clarify whether either starter carries injury concerns or recent ineffectiveness that might justify repricing the current 42% Marlins probability upward.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.