New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians

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Market context

The Yankees travel to Cleveland on 9 June for an interleague matchup against the Guardians, with the settlement window extending to mid-June to accommodate any postponements. The 53% crowd probability favours New York, reflecting their historical dominance in regular-season play against Cleveland and their stronger recent offensive output through early June.

The Yankees hold a 56–47 all-time record against the Guardians franchise since 2000, winning the last three consecutive meetings in 2023. However, Cleveland has emerged as a competitive AL Central side this season, with their pitching staff ranking amongst the league's most efficient. Recent form matters considerably here: the Yankees' lineup depth, anchored by their top-order hitters, typically generates more consistent run production than Cleveland's more contact-oriented approach. Injury status will be decisive—any absence from either team's starting rotation or key position players could shift the implied probability meaningfully.

Traders should monitor roster announcements through 8 June, particularly regarding pitcher assignments and any late-inning bullpen availability. Weather conditions at Cleveland's ballpark can favour pitching-heavy matchups, which would benefit the Guardians' strategic strengths. The Yankees' recent performance against left-handed starters and Cleveland's home-field advantage in June humidity represent secondary factors that could influence the final outcome. Settlement depends entirely on official MLB records, with no provision for alternative data sources.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.