Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers

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Market context

The Philadelphia Phillies travel to Milwaukee on 13 June for an evening fixture against the Brewers, with the market currently pricing the Phillies at 40 per cent implied probability of victory. This matchup falls within the regular season window where both clubs will have played roughly 60 games, providing sufficient data on form and roster stability. The settlement window extends to 20 June, allowing for postponement resolution should weather or scheduling issues arise.

Historical head-to-head records between these National League Central rivals show competitive balance, though recent seasons have favoured the Phillies slightly in overall win percentage. The Brewers have maintained consistency as a playoff-contending side, whilst the Phillies' trajectory depends heavily on injury status among core contributors. Crowd-implied probability at 40 per cent suggests moderate confidence in a Milwaukee outcome, reflecting either perceived home-field advantage or current roster advantages in the pitching matchup scheduled for that date.

Traders should monitor pitching announcements in the week preceding the fixture, as rotation changes or bullpen availability significantly influence single-game outcomes. Recent injury reports from both organisations—particularly regarding position players in the Phillies' lineup—will clarify whether the market's pricing reflects actual roster depth or outdated information. Weather forecasts for Milwaukee on 13 June may also shift probabilities if rain threatens the scheduled evening start time, though the extended settlement window mitigates cancellation risk.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.