North America Regional Qualifier: Qualify to The International

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the North American Regional Qualifier for The International 2026, a double-elimination Dota 2 tournament running from 24 to 26 June 2026, with four teams competing for one slot to the global finals[2][4]. The market currently implies a 0% chance that any North American team will qualify, a figure that defies the structural reality of the qualifier itself, where one slot is explicitly reserved for the region[3]. Historically, such zero probabilities in regional qualifiers have only appeared when a region’s top teams were suspended, banned, or absent due to external crises, as seen in past years when geopolitical issues or roster collapses left a region effectively empty; no such catalyst exists here, making the 0% implied probability a clear market error rather than a reflection of form or line-up news[8].

Traders should monitor the official announcement of the Group Stage participants for The International 2026, which must be published before 15 August 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as failure to do so resolves this market to “Other”[2]. Recent news confirms that nine slots remain open for qualifier survivors, with North America guaranteed one of those slots, meaning the absence of a qualifier winner is structurally impossible unless the tournament is cancelled or postponed[3][4]. Watch for any official statements from Dota 2 regarding team suspensions, injuries, or roster changes affecting the four participating North American teams, as these are the only catalysts that could realistically alter qualification odds; no such announcements have been made as of the tournament’s start[5]. The market’s current pricing ignores the tournament’s fixed slot allocation and the confirmed presence of four competitive teams, suggesting a disconnect between the implied probability and the actual competitive landscape.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews North America Regional Qualifier: Qualify to The International across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Champions League Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.