Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Aberdeen FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Aberdeen FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Aberdeen FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Aberdeen FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Aberdeen FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Aberdeen FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Aberdeen FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Aberdeen FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Aberdeen FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Aberdeen host Heart of Midlothian in the Scottish Premiership, and the market’s 0% Yes price reflects how little confirmed information is still moving before kick-off. The underlying form case is mixed rather than one-sided: FootyStats’ head-to-head record shows Aberdeen with 17 wins, Hearts with 15, and 10 draws across 42 meetings, while recent form tilts more towards Hearts at 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats over their last 10 league matches.[2] Recent match history also keeps this live as a low-scoring fixture, with the last 5 meetings split 2 Aberdeen wins, 1 Hearts win and 2 draws, and several trackers flagging a modest goals average around 2.4 in the rivalry.[6][19]
For traders, the main catalysts are the final line-ups, any late injury or suspension omissions, and whether Hearts can carry their stronger recent run into an away start at Pittodrie. Aberdeen’s recent league slide in some datasets contrasts with their better home-facing head-to-head record, including 23 home wins in 53 meetings and Hearts’ last away win in Aberdeen dating back to 2016, so late personnel news matters more than the broad historical balance.[10] ESPN lists the fixture as a live Premiership match on 1 August, but the key swing factor for “more markets” will be the actual XI, especially if either side loses a central defender, first-choice keeper, or primary scorer close to team-sheet release.[14]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Aberdeen FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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