Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Independiente Santa Fe O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Independiente Santa Fe O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Independiente Santa Fe 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 90% |
| Independiente Santa Fe 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 90% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| Independiente Santa Fe 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| Caracas FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 10% |
| Caracas FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Caracas FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Independiente Santa Fe (-2.5) | 0% |
| Caracas FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Independiente Santa Fe O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Caracas FC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Caracas FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Caracas FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Independiente Santa Fe 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Caracas FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Caracas FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Independiente Santa Fe and Caracas FC met in the Copa Sudamericana on 23 July, with the match listed for 8:30 PM ET at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín in Bogotá. The 100% YES crowd price fits a market built around a single live football fixture: if the tie is played as scheduled and enough additional market outcomes are posted before settlement, the contract resolves positively, so the main risk is not the scoreline but whether the organised market sequence actually appears and closes as expected.[1][2]
Historically, this sort of “more markets” contract is easiest to read through the matchday setup rather than team strength alone. Santa Fe’s home setting in Bogotá matters because altitude and travel can compress game states and push operators to list secondary markets such as cards, corners, and first-half angles once line-ups are confirmed; that usually becomes more relevant than head-to-head history when the event is already on the calendar and the market is effectively pricing completeness rather than a result.[2] Recent coverage confirms the fixture was active and being tracked minute-by-minute on match day, which is the main comparable signal traders use when judging whether a broad ancillary-markets contract will settle cleanly.[1]
The key catalysts are the pre-match team sheets, any late injury or suspension news, and whether the organiser posts the wider set of derivative markets on time. If either club rotates heavily or there is a delayed kick-off, books often adjust the number and type of listed side markets, which can matter more here than the underlying winner market. For traders, the practical watchpoints are confirmation of the starting XIs, final competition scheduling, and any last-minute venue or broadcast changes that can affect market availability before the settlement window closes.[1][2]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Independiente Santa Fe vs. Caracas FC - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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