Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| IK Sirius O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| IK Sirius O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| IK Sirius 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| IK Sirius 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 88% |
| IK Sirius (-1.5) | 84% |
| IK Sirius O/U 2.5 | 76% |
| O/U 3.5 | 59% |
| IK Sirius (-2.5) | 57% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 51% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Halmstads BK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Halmstads BK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| IK Sirius 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| IK Sirius 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Halmstads BK O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Both Teams to Score | 44% |
| O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| Halmstads BK O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| Halmstads BK O/U 1.5 | 11% |
| Halmstads BK (-1.5) | 1% |
| Halmstads BK (-2.5) | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Halmstads BK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Halmstads BK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Halmstads BK host IK Sirius in an Allsvenskan match that has settled into a clear away-favoured pricing pattern, with Sirius trading around 1.41 to win and Halmstad around 6.50, while the market also leans towards goals, with both teams to score priced as the shorter side and Sirius’ team total over 0.5 heavily backed.[1][4] That makes the “more markets” contract at 1% YES look like a niche outcome unless one of the side markets moves sharply on team news or an unexpectedly tight tactical setup.
The historical frame is that these two sides have often produced open games: FootyStats’ H2H page shows a 78% rate for over 0.5 goals in Sirius matches against Halmstad, 67% for over 2.5, and 72% for both teams to score across the sample they list.[12] Their comparable projection models also point away from a home upset, with one model giving Sirius a 58.2% win chance and another pricing them near 76-91% on the exchange-style and bookmaker markets, so the main historical read is that Sirius usually carry the stronger baseline, but the exact “more markets” settlement depends on which ancillary bets are ultimately posted.[2][3][13]
For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed line-ups, especially whether Sirius rotate in attack or rest anyone after any recent schedule compression, and any late injury or suspension news that changes the goals profile before kick-off.[17] If either side names a weakened forward line or a more conservative midfield, that would hit BTTS, team totals, and correct-score derivatives first; conversely, an unchanged Sirius front unit would reinforce the current away/over bias already visible in the market.[1][9]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Halmstads BK vs. IK Sirius - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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