Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Mjallby AIF O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Mjallby AIF O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Mjallby AIF O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| IK Sirius O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| IK Sirius O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| IK Sirius O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| IK Sirius 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| IK Sirius 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Mjallby AIF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Mjallby AIF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Mjallby AIF (-1.5) | 0% |
| IK Sirius (-1.5) | 0% |
| Mjallby AIF (-2.5) | 0% |
| IK Sirius (-2.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| Mjallby AIF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Mjallby AIF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| IK Sirius 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| IK Sirius 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Mjallby AIF travel to IK Sirius on 15 August for an Allsvenskan fixture in the Swedish top division's closing stretch. The match kicks off at 09:00 ET, with settlement closing at 13:00 ET the same day—a tight window that leaves minimal margin for late team-news revisions or injury confirmations.
The 0% implied probability reflects either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or sparse trading activity on this particular market variant. Allsvenskan's mid-table volatility and the compressed fixture schedule in August typically see form shift rapidly; neither side has established the consistency that would justify such a definitive crowd assessment. Historical head-to-head records between these clubs show competitive encounters, though recent league standings and goal-differential trends matter more than archive results. Traders should cross-reference current injury lists—particularly for key attacking or defensive personnel—against the settlement deadline, as Allsvenskan clubs often announce squad changes within 48 hours of kick-off.
Catalysts include official team-sheet releases from both clubs, typically 24 hours pre-match, and any late suspensions or fitness updates from Mjallby or Sirius training reports. Swedish media outlets including Fotbollskanalen and the clubs' official channels will carry these announcements. The early kick-off time itself is a factor: weather conditions in mid-August Sweden and pitch state can influence play style, particularly for sides relying on pressing or wide play. Traders should monitor whether either club has fixture congestion in the preceding week, as fatigue often correlates with performance dips in the final month of the season.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Mjallby AIF vs. IK Sirius - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I trade Premier League prediction markets from the UK?
- Yes. Polymarket has Premier League outcome markets (title winner, relegation, top scorer). For UK traders wanting GBP settlement and UKGC protection, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer Premier League futures and match markets. Betfair is the deepest liquidity venue for UK football exchange markets.
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