Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Any Other Score | 100% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 0 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 1 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 0 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 2 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 1 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2 - 0 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 3 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 2 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2 - 1 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3 - 0 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 3 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2 - 2 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3 - 1 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2 - 3 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3 - 2 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3 - 3 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
Market context
Benfica host St Gallen with the Swiss side carrying a 2-1 lead from the first leg, so the market is being framed by whether Benfica can turn territorial control into a multi-goal response rather than simply win on the night. The opener to this exact-score market should be read against Benfica’s recent scoring profile: they were unbeaten in their last five league matches before the tie, with results including 3-1 at Estoril, 4-1 against Moreirense and 2-1 at Sporting, while St Gallen had mixed domestic form but arrived after beating Basel 3-1 and Lugano 2-1, then drawing 1-1 with Thun.[1][5][8]
There is no head-to-head history beyond the first leg, which St Gallen won 2-1 despite Benfica having more possession and shots, so the rematch is likely to be decided by whether Benfica can impose enough attacking volume without leaving space in transition.[3][4] That first meeting produced 17 shots for St Gallen and 14 for Benfica, with Benfica holding 61.4% possession but only four shots on target, a useful reminder that dominance on the ball has not yet translated into the kind of margin needed for exact-score outcomes such as 2-0 or 3-1.[4]
For traders, the key catalysts are Benfica’s line-up and whether any rotation follows the first-leg setback, because exact-score pricing is highly sensitive to finishing quality and defensive continuity. Watch for late team news around Benfica’s front line and full-backs, as well as any confirmation of St Gallen’s preferred shape away from home; the market sits at 0% YES, which implies the listed scoreline currently carries no crowd support and any shift will come from team-sheet information rather than broad sentiment.[2][4]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC St. Gallen - Exact Score. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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