UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)

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Market context

Allan Nascimento meets Mitch Raposo in a flyweight prelim at UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas, and the market’s 0% yes price suggests the bout is already being treated as a completed, highly settled outcome rather than an open live-price proposition. That is notable because the fight was previously shifted from the Winnipeg card after Raposo dealt with illness, before being rebooked for June 20 at the UFC Apex; official UFC updates and subsequent listings confirmed the new date and card placement.[3][5][7]

On recent form, Nascimento brings the stronger UFC profile: Sportsnet described him as 4-1 in the promotion with a four-fight winning streak, including a Performance of the Night finish of Cody Durden, while Raposo is 1-2 in the UFC and had just a bounce-back decision over Azat Maksum in October 2025.[3] Betting previews also made Nascimento the clear favourite at around -180, which fits a market that would usually lean towards the more established grappler unless Raposo’s speed and boxing create a clean points path.[1] Head-to-head data are limited to this pairing, so traders are mainly reading recent opposition quality and the health question that already interrupted the original booking.[3]

The key catalysts are the official UFC result, any late weigh-in or medical issue, and whether the bout actually starts on the prelims as scheduled, since the market can still resolve 50-50 if the contest is not scored or is cancelled/postponed beyond the settlement cut-off. Sofascore had the fight listed for 20 June 2026 at 21:00 UTC on the prelims, but that kind of third-party schedule should be treated as secondary to the UFC’s own result page once the card is underway.[2] Raposo’s prior illness is the main line-up dependency to watch, because any late withdrawal or no-contest outcome would matter more here than stylistic nuance.[3][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims) on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.