UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Prelims)

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Market context

Otari Tanzilovi met Shane Collins on the UFC Fight Night prelims in a featherweight bout, and the market’s 0% YES print is hard to reconcile with the fight already being listed as a completed contest on UFC Stats. The official bout page shows Collins beating Tanzilovi by unanimous decision over three rounds, while CBS Sports also records Collins as the winner, with the bout marked final rather than scheduled[1][5]. That means the real-world result has already moved the underlying outcome away from a Tanzilovi win, which is consistent with a near-zero price on him once the result is widely reflected.

The form line before the matchup was still relevant for reading how the bout might have been priced before the bell. Tanzilovi entered with a UFC record shown as 10-1 or 10-2 depending on the database, with strong striking accuracy and a high takedown rate on UFC.com, while Collins was listed by the same sources as unbeaten and shorter-priced in the closing market[1][5][7]. The decisive historical cue is the absence of any head-to-head background beyond this fight, so traders were effectively weighing prospect profiles rather than a repeat matchup.

For catalysts, the main watchpoint is official UFC confirmation of the result, because markets like this can still be affected by late scoring changes, a no contest, or a rare administrative overturn before settlement. UFC Stats already records the bout as a unanimous decision loss for Tanzilovi, and the settlement window closes immediately after the event date, so there is little room for a post-fight procedural shift unless the UFC issues an extraordinary correction[1]. Recent pricing snapshots from CBS Sports also reflect Collins as the live winner, which suggests the market has already absorbed the key event-specific information[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.