Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Club Puebla O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Club Puebla 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Juárez (-1.5) | 0% |
| Club Puebla (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Juárez (-2.5) | 0% |
| Club Puebla (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Juárez O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Juárez O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Juárez O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Club Puebla O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Club Puebla O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Juárez 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Juárez 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Club Puebla 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Juárez 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Juárez 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Club Puebla 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Club Puebla 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
FC Juárez travel to Club Puebla on 17 July for a Liga MX fixture with settlement closing early the following morning. The 0% implied probability on additional markets suggests either a technical listing issue or extremely low expected liquidity for secondary betting options on this match. Juárez finished the 2023–24 season in mid-table form, whilst Puebla have historically occupied a stronger competitive position within the division, though recent seasons have seen both clubs fluctuate between playoff contention and mid-tier finishes.
Head-to-head records between these sides show relatively balanced results over the past five years, with neither club establishing clear dominance. Puebla's home advantage at Estadio Cuauhtémoc carries weight in Liga MX, where home teams convert roughly 45% of matches into wins. Current squad news, injury reports, and any late suspensions will be material factors; Liga MX clubs often announce team sheets 24–48 hours before kickoff, and fixture congestion in July can affect player availability. The timing of this settlement window—ending at 03:00 GMT on 18 July—allows minimal buffer beyond the match conclusion, meaning traders should monitor official team confirmations and any weather delays that might push kick-off times.
The absence of meaningful probability on derivative markets may reflect sparse trading interest rather than genuine certainty about outcomes. Traders should watch for late-breaking injury news or lineup confirmations from either club's official channels, as these frequently shift secondary market odds in Liga MX fixtures.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for FC Juárez vs. Club Puebla - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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