Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers meet in a divisional game on Thursday afternoon at Comerica Park, with Cleveland arriving on the stronger run of form. The Guardians won the first two games of the series, then completed a four-game sweep on Thursday, taking a 3-1 win after a 3-2 extra-innings victory the night before. That pushed Cleveland to 30-22 and extended a six-game winning streak, while Detroit slipped to 20-31 after another close loss. In head-to-head terms, the recent edge is with Cleveland: the Guardians have controlled this series over the last week and have repeatedly found late-game offence against Detroit’s bullpen.

For traders, the main question is whether the Tigers can stabilise quickly after being outplayed across the series. MLB.com’s report on the sweep highlighted Detroit’s slump and Cleveland’s ability to close out tight games, both of which matter in a one-off market where late bullpen usage can swing the price. The 1:10pm ET start also means line-ups and pitching status are likely to matter more than broader season records: any rest day for key Cleveland bats or an unexpected pitching change would be the most direct catalyst for movement. With the market currently implying 0% for a Cleveland win, recent results and the four-game sweep are the clearest comparable cases against that view.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.