Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Cleveland Guardians visit the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on 24 May, with the market leaning to Philadelphia at 61% implied. Cleveland arrives in better immediate form, having won five straight after a 3-1 win at Detroit on 21 May and scoring at least three runs in each of those games. Philadelphia sits at 25-25, while Cleveland is 30-22, so the current price is being set more by home-field and roster quality than by record alone.

The head-to-head is not especially long, but recent meetings have tilted towards Cleveland’s offence breaking through in specific spots. The Guardians beat the Phillies 6-0 in Cleveland on 9 May 2025, although Philadelphia had the clearer upper hand in the longer sample noted by AI Score, winning 10 of 18 meetings since 2002. That mixed history fits a market where Philadelphia is favoured but not overwhelmingly so; a 39% Guardians price still leaves room for a one-run game if Cleveland’s current run continues.

What matters next is the line-up and pitching announcement, especially because the game is at Citizens Bank Park, where run environment can swing quickly with the wind and starting match-up. ESPN lists both clubs with fairly close team batting lines, but Philadelphia has the edge in power, with 62 homers to Cleveland’s 53, and home results have been modest rather than dominant at 13-14. Any late news on rest after the double-check of recent schedules, or an unexpected scratch in either rotation or the top third of the order, is likely to move this more than the broad season averages.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.