Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Cleveland Guardians travel to Philadelphia on 23 May for a regular-season matchup against the Phillies, with the current crowd-implied probability favouring Philadelphia at 62 per cent. The settlement window extends to 30 May, accommodating potential postponements common in late-May baseball when weather disruptions occur across the Northeast corridor.

Historical matchups between these franchises show the Phillies have held a slight edge in recent seasons, though the Guardians' 2023 World Series run demonstrated their competitive calibre. The 38 per cent probability assigned to Cleveland reflects their status as road underdogs against a Phillies side that has typically performed better at Citizens Bank Park. Head-to-head records since 2020 favour Philadelphia marginally, but single-game variance remains substantial; neither team's recent form alone determines outcomes at this probability level.

Traders should monitor roster developments in the days preceding the fixture. Cleveland's pitching depth and the Phillies' injury status—particularly regarding their outfield and catching positions—will influence line movement. The 4:05 PM ET start time favours teams with stronger afternoon performance records, a detail worth tracking through May's schedule. Recent news from MLB injury reports and any late roster moves announced within 48 hours of game time typically trigger sharp adjustments. The settlement window's extension to 30 May is relevant only if postponement occurs; otherwise, resolution follows the official final score from 23 May's contest.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.