Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Detroit Tigers travel to Houston for a regular-season matchup on 15 June at 8:10 PM ET, with the crowd-implied probability heavily favouring the Astros at 86%. This pricing reflects Houston's superior regular-season record and recent form, though the settlement window extending to 23 June accounts for potential postponements in the MLB schedule.

Houston has maintained a winning record against Detroit over the past three seasons, with the Astros winning 11 of their last 16 head-to-head contests. The Astros' roster depth—anchored by Kyle Tucker and Jose Altuve—has proven more consistent than Detroit's younger lineup. However, the Tigers have shown competitive form in June, particularly when their starting rotation features their top-tier arms. Recent injury updates matter considerably: any absence from Houston's catching position or Detroit's primary starting pitcher would shift the implied probability meaningfully. The Astros' home-field advantage at Minute Maid Park historically favours their hitters, though the park's dimensions have occasionally benefited visiting teams with power-hitting profiles.

Traders should monitor lineup confirmations released 24 hours before first pitch, as late-inning roster adjustments or unexpected absences frequently move markets in the final trading window. Weather conditions in Houston—particularly humidity affecting ball carry—can influence over/under expectations and indirectly affect win probability. Any roster moves or suspension announcements from MLB disciplinary actions would warrant immediate reassessment of the current 86% probability, particularly if they affect either team's starting rotation or primary offensive contributors.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.