Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Pirates and Cardinals meet in St. Louis after a split in the latest two games, with Pittsburgh’s 7-0 win on 20 May offsetting St. Louis’s 11-7 victory on 28 April. That recent swing matters because this rivalry has been volatile rather than one-sided: in their last five meetings, the Cardinals are 3-2 and the teams have produced outcomes ranging from shutouts to high-scoring games. The crowd-implied 100% YES price looks more like a placeholder than a true forecast signal, so recent run prevention and line-up availability are more informative than the market tag itself.

Pittsburgh’s best recent evidence came in the shutout, when Konnor Griffin went four-for-four in the frame cited by ESPN’s 20 May report, while Nick Gonzales and Endy Rodríguez also drove in runs. St. Louis, by contrast, had its bats carry the earlier April win, with Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker each producing three RBIs. The key thing to watch before first pitch is whether either side rests regulars after the quick turnaround and whether the Cardinals can restore any offensive rhythm after being blanked at home; if not, the game shape may depend heavily on the starting pitchers and bullpen usage rather than season-long records.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.