St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The St. Louis Cardinals travel to Milwaukee on 25 May for an afternoon fixture against the Brewers, with the current market pricing the Cardinals at 34 per cent implied probability of victory. This represents a significant underdog position despite the Cardinals' competitive standing within the National League Central division. The settlement window extends to 1 June, allowing for fixture postponement or rescheduling without early closure.

Historical matchups between these division rivals show the Brewers have maintained a slight edge in recent seasons, though individual game outcomes remain volatile. The Cardinals' recent form and roster composition—particularly their pitching depth and offensive consistency—will determine whether the current 34 per cent reflects genuine underlying weakness or represents value for contrarian traders. Head-to-head records from the previous two seasons indicate neither club has dominated the fixture convincingly, with results typically clustering around even splits when accounting for home-field advantage.

Traders should monitor starting pitcher announcements, which typically arrive 24 to 48 hours before game time and materially shift market pricing. Injury reports from both organisations—particularly any late-notice absences from core batting lineups—frequently trigger repricing. Weather conditions for the afternoon start in Milwaukee warrant attention, as wind direction and temperature can significantly influence scoring patterns at American Family Field. Recent transaction news, including any mid-season roster moves or suspension announcements, should be cross-referenced against official MLB sources before settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.