Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Rays visit the Yankees tonight at Yankee Stadium, with Tampa Bay priced as a slight underdog despite sitting 33-15 and holding a sizeable edge in overall record. New York are 30-21 and 16-6 at home, while Tampa Bay have gone 14-10 on the road, so the market is effectively balancing the Yankees’ home split against the Rays’ stronger season-long performance. The first meeting earlier this spring went Tampa Bay’s way, 5-3, which is part of why a 43% implied chance for the Rays looks broadly in range rather than an outlier.

Recent form points in both directions. The Yankees were blanked 2-0 by Toronto yesterday and have managed only nine hits and one run across their last two games, which matters against a Rays club that has already shown it can win a tighter, lower-scoring game in this matchup. ESPN lists the Yankees without Austin Vernon, while Yandy Díaz is day-to-day for Tampa Bay, so line-up confirmation is worth watching before first pitch. The projected pitching matchup, Gerrit Cole against Nick Martinez, also makes the final batting orders and late injury news especially relevant for any move off the current number.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.