Nashville SC vs. New York City FC

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Market context

Nashville SC travel to New York City FC on Saturday, 23 May 2026 for an MLS regular-season fixture. The market currently prices a Nashville victory at 25%, implying NYCFC are favoured despite playing at home. Settlement occurs early Sunday morning UK time, shortly after the final whistle.

Nashville's recent form and squad depth will be critical determinants. The club has historically struggled in away fixtures against Eastern Conference sides, particularly in May when fixture congestion peaks. NYCFC, conversely, have won their last three home matches and maintain a +8 goal differential at Yankee Stadium this season. Head-to-head records since 2019 show NYCFC with four wins to Nashville's two across six meetings, though Nashville secured a 2–1 victory in their last encounter last October. Injury status for both sides—particularly whether Nashville's key midfield players are available and whether NYCFC's defensive line remains intact—will shift the probability meaningfully. Any late team news released Friday or Saturday morning should be monitored closely, as MLS clubs frequently announce squad changes within 48 hours of kickoff.

The 25% probability reflects moderate confidence in NYCFC but leaves room for Nashville's away-day unpredictability. Recent MLS results suggest visiting teams win roughly 28–32% of matches in this fixture window, so the current line sits slightly below historical norms. Traders should watch for official lineups and any late injury confirmations from either camp before settlement.

Methodology

We track Nashville SC vs. New York City FC on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.