Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey: Anytime Touchdown | 100% |
| Terry McLaurin: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 97% |
| George Kittle: Anytime Touchdown | 94% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 93% |
| Mike Evans: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 93% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 92% |
| Brock Purdy: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 92% |
| Brock Purdy: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 92% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 92% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 92% |
| Kaelon Black: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 92% |
| Kaelon Black: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 92% |
| Kaelon Black: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 92% |
| George Kittle: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 92% |
| Mike Evans: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 92% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 92% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 92% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 92% |
| George Kittle: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 92% |
| Christian McCaffrey: 2+ Touchdowns | 92% |
| Rachaad White: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 91% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 91% |
| George Kittle: Team First TD (San Francisco 49ers) | 88% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 86% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 85% |
| Rachaad White: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 85% |
| Brock Purdy: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 82% |
| Kaelon Black: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 80% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 76% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 76% |
| George Kittle: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 76% |
| Mike Evans: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 76% |
| Mike Evans: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 76% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 76% |
| George Kittle: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 69% |
| George Kittle: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 68% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 63% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 63% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 63% |
| George Kittle: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 63% |
| George Kittle: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 63% |
| Mike Evans: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 63% |
| Mike Evans: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 63% |
| Mike Evans: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 63% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 62% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 59% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 56% |
| Brock Purdy: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 52% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 51% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 51% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 51% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Yards O/U 99.5 | 51% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 51% |
| Kaelon Black: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Kaelon Black: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Kaelon Black: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Rachaad White: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Rachaad White: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 51% |
| George Kittle: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 51% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| George Kittle: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| George Kittle: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Mike Evans: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| George Kittle: Longest Reception O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| Mike Evans: Longest Reception O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 50% |
| Brock Purdy: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Daniels: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Kaelon Black: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Kaelon Black: Rushing Yards O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| Rachaad White: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| George Kittle: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Mike Evans: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| Mike Evans: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Mike Evans: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Mike Evans: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Mike Evans: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Mike Evans: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Mike Evans: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Kaelon Black: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Completions O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Completions O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Completions O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Completions O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Brock Purdy: Team First TD (San Francisco 49ers) | 50% |
| Chig Okonkwo: Team First TD (Washington Commanders) | 50% |
| Jayden Daniels: Team First TD (Washington Commanders) | 50% |
| Kaelon Black: Team First TD (San Francisco 49ers) | 50% |
| Mike Evans: Team First TD (San Francisco 49ers) | 50% |
| Rachaad White: Team First TD (Washington Commanders) | 50% |
| Terry McLaurin: Team First TD (Washington Commanders) | 50% |
| Brock Purdy: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 46% |
| Jayden Daniels: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Team First TD (San Francisco 49ers) | 45% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Team First TD (Washington Commanders) | 44% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Rachaad White: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 41% |
| Rachaad White: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 37% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 33% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 32% |
| George Kittle: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 31% |
| Brock Purdy: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 30% |
| George Kittle: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 29% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Yards O/U 324.5 | 26% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 26% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 25% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 24% |
| Rachaad White: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 22% |
| Jayden Daniels: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 20% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 20% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| George Kittle: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 19% |
| Chig Okonkwo: Anytime Touchdown | 19% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 18% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 18% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 16% |
| Rachaad White: Anytime Touchdown | 16% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 15% |
| Jayden Daniels: Anytime Touchdown | 15% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Yards O/U 349.5 | 14% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Rushing Yards O/U 99.5 | 14% |
| Jayden Daniels: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 14% |
| Jayden Daniels: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 14% |
| George Kittle: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Brock Purdy: Anytime Touchdown | 14% |
| George Kittle: 2+ Touchdowns | 14% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Jayden Daniels: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 13% |
| Jayden Daniels: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 13% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 13% |
| Mike Evans: Anytime Touchdown | 13% |
| Kaelon Black: Anytime Touchdown | 12% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 12% |
| Jayden Daniels: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 11% |
| Jayden Daniels: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 11% |
| George Kittle: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 11% |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Brock Purdy: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 10% |
| Jayden Daniels: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 10% |
| Rachaad White: 2+ Touchdowns | 10% |
| Mike Evans: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 9% |
| Brock Purdy: 2+ Touchdowns | 9% |
| Jayden Daniels: 2+ Touchdowns | 9% |
| Mike Evans: 2+ Touchdowns | 9% |
| Christian McCaffrey: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 8% |
| Terry McLaurin: Anytime Touchdown | 7% |
| Chig Okonkwo: 2+ Touchdowns | 6% |
| Terry McLaurin: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of commanders vs. 49ers - player props. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Player prop markets for the NFL game between the Commanders and 49ers, scheduled for October 19 at 8:15 PM ET.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Commanders vs. 49ers - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I trade Premier League prediction markets from the UK?
- Yes. Polymarket has Premier League outcome markets (title winner, relegation, top scorer). For UK traders wanting GBP settlement and UKGC protection, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer Premier League futures and match markets. Betfair is the deepest liquidity venue for UK football exchange markets.
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