Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Club Alianza Lima 2 - 1 CS Huancayo | 100% |
| Club Alianza Lima 0 - 0 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 0 - 1 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 1 - 0 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 0 - 2 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 1 - 1 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 2 - 0 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 0 - 3 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 1 - 2 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 3 - 0 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 1 - 3 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 2 - 2 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 3 - 1 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 2 - 3 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 3 - 2 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 3 - 3 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Any Other Score | 0% |
Market context
Club Alianza Lima faces CS Huancayo in a Peru Liga 1 fixture scheduled for 19 July 2026 at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, with the market resolving on the exact score after 90 minutes. The 0% crowd-implied probability for any listed exact score reflects the historical volatility of this pairing, where the most frequent outcome is a 1–1 draw, occurring in seven of 41 previous encounters [5]. Over the last three decades, Alianza Lima has dominated with 19 wins compared to Huancayo’s 11, yet 11 matches ended in draws, underscoring the difficulty in pinning down a single precise result [1][5]. Recent form reinforces this uncertainty: Alianza Lima boasts 12 wins in their last 17 games (2.35 PPG), while Huancayo has struggled with only 4 wins in 17 (0.94 PPG), but their last meeting ended 2–1 to Alianza in January 2026, a scoreline that has appeared inconsistently [2][10].
Traders must monitor pre-match line-up announcements for Alianza Lima, particularly regarding Pablo Guede’s tactical setup and any suspensions; Yonatan Murillo faces automatic suspension if he receives a yellow card, having collected nine already this season [6]. Huancayo’s defensive frailties—conceding 1.2 goals per match in their last five—contrast with Alianza’s tight defence (0.2 conceded per match), suggesting low-scoring games are plausible but not guaranteed [11]. The match’s dependency on stoppage-time dynamics and potential late goals, as seen in the 2–1 January result secured by Alan Cantero’s free-kick in the final minute, adds further unpredictability to exact-score pricing [12]. No recent injury reports have been published, but confirmation of key attackers’ availability will be critical before settlement.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Club Alianza Lima vs. CS Huancayo - Exact Score. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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