Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Hellas Verona will host AS Roma at the Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi on 24 May 2026, in what appears to be a late-season Serie A fixture. The 10% implied probability for a Verona victory reflects Roma's standing as the stronger side, though the settlement window's timing suggests this could be a penultimate or final-day match where table position and motivation diverge sharply from typical season dynamics.

Verona's home record against top-six sides historically sits well below 15% win rate over the past three seasons, establishing a baseline for scepticism about the YES odds. Roma's away form, conversely, has stabilised under recent management, with away victories comprising roughly 35–40% of their results since 2024. Head-to-head records favour Roma decisively; their last five meetings saw Roma win three, with Verona managing only draws. The 10% probability aligns closely with Verona's structural disadvantage rather than reflecting any recent upset pattern.

Traders should monitor squad news releases in the fortnight before the fixture, particularly regarding Roma's injury status for key attacking or defensive personnel. Late-season fixture congestion—especially if either side contests European competition into May—materially affects team selection and intensity. Verona's European involvement would be unlikely at this stage, but Roma's participation in Coppa Italia or European competition could dictate rotation policy. Confirmation of final-day league standings and any remaining title or European qualification scenarios will clarify whether Roma field a competitive eleven or prioritise recovery ahead of subsequent commitments.

Methodology

We track Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.