Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 77% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 69% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots | 69% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 68% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots on target | 66% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 60% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots | 56% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 55% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 53% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Dean Henderson: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 3+ saves | 46% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 46% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ shots on target | 46% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots on target | 46% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ shots on target | 46% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 46% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ shots | 45% |
| Dean Henderson: 5+ saves | 44% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 44% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 44% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 40% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 39% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 32% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 27% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 25% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 23% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots | 22% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 19% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 19% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots on target | 18% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Marcus Rashford: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 4+ saves | 11% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots on target | 11% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Dean Henderson: 2+ saves | 10% |
| Dean Henderson: 4+ saves | 10% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 2+ saves | 10% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 5+ saves | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 9% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Ivan Toney: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Bukayo Saka: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Morgan Rogers: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
The England vs. DR Congo - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 91% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between England and DR Congo, scheduled for July 1 at 12:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for England vs. DR Congo - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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