Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC St. Gallen O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC St. Gallen O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC St. Gallen 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC St. Gallen 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC St. Gallen (-1.5) | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC St. Gallen (-2.5) | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC St. Gallen O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC St. Gallen 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC St. Gallen 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
FC St. Gallen host Benfica in the first leg of their Europa League qualifying tie, and the market has opened with **0% YES** for any additional markets, which fits the direction of travel: Benfica are the stronger side on paper and were priced as clear away favourites ahead of kick-off.[1][3] Recent preview material also pointed to Benfica’s superior recent return, including a 2-0 win over Villarreal, while St. Gallen were framed as a considerable underdog at Kybunpark.[1]
That probability should be read against how knockout qualifiers typically behave when a bigger club takes the first leg away from home: the market is often driven less by headline match odds than by whether the favourite can rotate, score early, or protect key players for the return in Lisbon.[3] One specific late wrinkle is Benfica defender António Silva, whose availability was the subject of Portuguese media discussion on the eve of the tie, with reports that Rui Costa said he could be used against St. Gallen if the coach wished.[5]
The main catalysts now are team sheets and any confirmation of managed minutes, because a first-leg benching or late withdrawal in Benfica’s back line would materially affect “more markets” pricing around cards, goals, and player lines. The return leg is scheduled for 30 July in Lisbon, so any cautious selection by Benfica could be tied to preserving options for the second match rather than chasing margin in Switzerland.[3]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for FC St. Gallen vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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