UFC Fight Night: Jesus Aguilar vs. Rei Tsuruya (Flyweight, Prelims)

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Market context

Jesus Aguilar and Rei Tsuruya are set to meet in a scheduled three-round flyweight bout at UFC Fight Night in Macau, with the market pricing the contest close to a coin flip despite Tsuruya opening as the clear favourite with several bookmakers. That shape makes sense: Tsuruya is younger, more hyped, and listed around -300 at BetUS, while Aguilar is the live underdog at +246 and has a more obvious upset route if he can turn the fight into a scramble-heavy, submission-led contest. The line also reflects the usual flyweight volatility, where one takedown sequence or a prolonged top-control spell can outweigh otherwise close striking exchanges.

For traders, the key comparison is not just win-loss record but how each man has been winning. Recent preview coverage has framed this as a pace fight between two orthodox flyweights who like to stay busy, with Tsuruya expected to bank minutes through takedowns, top control and ground strikes, and Aguilar relying on sharper finishing threats if he can force extended grappling exchanges. At this level, recent UFC flyweight bouts with strong wrestling edges have often landed with the favourite, but the underdog’s submission threat keeps the price from drifting too far one way. The main things to watch before settlement are the official weigh-ins, any late change to the prelim card, and whether either fighter is reported injured or medically withdrawn, as a cancellation, postponement beyond the settlement window, or no contest would take the market to 50-50.

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Methodology

This page reviews UFC Fight Night: Jesus Aguilar vs. Rei Tsuruya (Flyweight, Prelims) across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.