Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
77% | 23% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
77% | 23% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+1.5) | 77% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 56% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 53% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-4.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-4.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-5.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+5.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-6.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-7.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+7.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-8.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+8.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-9.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+9.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-10.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+10.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 48% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-4.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+4.5) | 46% |
| Map 2 Winner | 24% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 24% |
| Match Winner | 7% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: evil geniuses vs nrg (bo3) - vct americas stage 2 group alpha stands at 77% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant match between Evil Geniuses and NRG in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha, initially scheduled for August 9 at 5:00PM ET. This market will res…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I trade Premier League prediction markets from the UK?
- Yes. Polymarket has Premier League outcome markets (title winner, relegation, top scorer). For UK traders wanting GBP settlement and UKGC protection, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer Premier League futures and match markets. Betfair is the deepest liquidity venue for UK football exchange markets.
Trade Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas … on Champions League Prediction
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →