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Valorant: MIBR LOS vs Team Heretics (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D

How the prediction market is pricing "Valorant: MIBR LOS vs Team Heretics (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 100% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 100% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 100% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 100% Volume: $226K Liquidity: $532K Closes: 5 Jul 2026
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Valorant: MIBR LOS vs Team Heretics (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.590%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.590%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.590%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.590%
Map Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs MIBR LOS (+1.5)74%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.551%
O/U 2.5 Games50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5)50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.550%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.550%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.550%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.550%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 32.550%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 31.550%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5)50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-4.5) vs MIBR LOS (+4.5)50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs MIBR LOS (+3.5)50%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5)48%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.548%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5)10%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5)10%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs MIBR LOS (+3.5)10%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-4.5) vs MIBR LOS (+4.5)10%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-6.5) vs MIBR LOS (+6.5)10%
Map 2 Winner7%
Match Winner2%
Map Handicap: MIBR LOS (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5)1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-5.5) vs MIBR LOS (+5.5)1%
Map 1 Winner0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-5.5) vs MIBR LOS (+5.5)0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-6.5) vs MIBR LOS (+6.5)0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-7.5) vs MIBR LOS (+7.5)0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-9.5) vs MIBR LOS (+9.5)0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-8.5) vs MIBR LOS (+8.5)0%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: mibr los vs team heretics (bo3) - esports world cup group d stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant Winners match between MIBR LOS and Team Heretics in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 5 at 7:00AM ET. This market will…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Valorant: MIBR LOS vs Team Heretics (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Oliver HughesOliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto ReporterandEmma RobertsEmma RobertsFinancial Journalist

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