PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is a WNBA match on 24 June at 8:00pm ET between the Portland Fire and Chicago Sky at Wintrust Arena, where the market resolves to the winner based on the final score including overtime. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for Portland Fire winning reflects a stark disparity in recent form: Portland has lost three consecutive road games, while Chicago, despite a 4–12 record, is attempting to end a six-game losing streak at home. Historically, when a team with a losing streak hosts a road-weary opponent, the home side often outperforms expectations; in their only prior meeting this season on 9 May, Chicago defeated Portland 98–83 in Portland’s regular-season return, underscoring a tangible head-to-head advantage that traders should weigh against the 0% pricing [3][5].

Key catalysts include pre-game injury updates and lineup confirmations, particularly given Portland’s reliance on Carleton, who scored 24 points in the previous outing, and Chicago’s need to stabilise its defence after averaging 82.4 points per game—5.7 fewer than Portland allows [1][4]. Traders must monitor official announcements from the WNBA or team channels regarding any suspensions or acute injuries, as even minor roster shifts could alter the line significantly. While no recent news source explicitly confirms new injuries for either squad in this fixture, the broader WNBA context includes Kelsey Plum of the Los Angeles Sparks being out for four weeks with a leg injury, highlighting how injury volatility can reshape market probabilities in real time [1]. The settlement window ending 25 June 2026 ensures the market remains open only if the game is postponed, with cancellation resolving 50–50.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.