Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
64% | 36% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
64% | 36% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| France | 64% |
| Argentina | 21% |
| United States | 6% |
| England | 5% |
| Brazil | 3% |
| Spain | 2% |
| Norway | 2% |
| Colombia | 1% |
| Croatia | 1% |
| Portugal | 1% |
| Switzerland | 1% |
| Mexico | 1% |
| Belgium | 1% |
| Cape Verde | 0% |
| Curaçao | 0% |
| Czechia | 0% |
| Iran | 0% |
| Japan | 0% |
| Netherlands | 0% |
| Paraguay | 0% |
| Scotland | 0% |
| South Africa | 0% |
| Tunisia | 0% |
| Country A | 0% |
| Country C | 0% |
| Country D | 0% |
| Country E | 0% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0% |
| Egypt | 0% |
| Germany | 0% |
| Ivory Coast | 0% |
| Qatar | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
| Algeria | 0% |
| Australia | 0% |
| Austria | 0% |
| Canada | 0% |
| Haiti | 0% |
| Iraq | 0% |
| Morocco | 0% |
| New Zealand | 0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 0% |
| Senegal | 0% |
| South Korea | 0% |
| Sweden | 0% |
| Türkiye | 0% |
| Uruguay | 0% |
| Uzbekistan | 0% |
| DR Congo | 0% |
| Ecuador | 0% |
| Ghana | 0% |
| Jordan | 0% |
| Panama | 0% |
| Country B | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 64% YES probability for World Cup: Top Scorer (Nation). This market will resolve to the nation that records the most total goals through all rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the of…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for World Cup: Top Scorer (Nation). Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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