Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The market hinges on which firm secures the top spot on the Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard by 30 June 2026, with the current crowd assigning only a 2% chance to the “yes” outcome for the named entity. Historically, dominance in this arena has been fleeting; models rarely hold the #1 position for more than a few months before a rival overtakes them. In February 2026, Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 became the first to lead across Text, Code, and Search leaderboards simultaneously, yet by June, a new model—Claude Fable 5—has already claimed the top rank with a composite score of 100/100, suggesting rapid turnover is the norm rather than the exception[1][2].

Traders must monitor upcoming model releases and leaderboard updates, as a single high-profile launch could instantly shift the ranking. Anthropic’s recent dominance, holding the top four spots in the Code Arena and leading the Search Arena with a 30-point margin, indicates strong organisational momentum, but OpenAI and Google are actively developing successors that could disrupt this lead[2]. A recent announcement from LMSYS Org on 17 June 2026 confirmed ongoing leaderboard recalibrations, meaning any new model entering the arena with superior benchmarks could displace the current leader before the settlement window closes[8]. The key catalyst is the next major release from either Anthropic, OpenAI, or Google, as even a marginal score improvement could alter the final outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.