Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Valentin Vacherot

Platform comparison

Market context

Raphael Collignon faces Valentin Vacherot in the Swiss Open, with the Belgian currently holding a 56% implied probability to advance. Collignon, ranked 43 in the world as of late June 2026, has demonstrated strong clay-court form, winning 73.38% of his matches on the surface over his career, including a third-round appearance at Roland-Garros this year [1][6]. His recent ATP record shows 9 wins in 15 matches in 2025, with a notable 2-1 victory in Miami before a loss to Tommy Paul, indicating competitive resilience against higher-ranked opponents [1][4].

Historical data on similar ATP 250 clay events suggests that players ranked between 40–50 with above 70% clay win rates typically command 55–60% market probabilities when facing unranked or lower-ranked challengers, aligning closely with the current 56% line. Collignon’s 8/10 first-set win rate in his last ten games further supports his ability to establish early control, a key factor in tight matches on slow surfaces [2].

Traders should monitor pre-match warm-up reports and any late injury announcements, particularly given Collignon’s recent 0-2 losses in May that briefly dented momentum [2]. The match is scheduled for 4:00 AM ET on 17 July; any delay beyond seven days without a result triggers a 50-50 settlement, making weather and court availability critical dependencies. No official injury news has been released as of this morning, but a sudden withdrawal would invalidate the current pricing [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Valentin Vacherot. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.