Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Tommaso Compagnucci and Maxim Mrva are playing a Challenger first-round match in Plovdiv, and the market’s 100% YES price is effectively saying the market expects Mrva to come through.[1][2][8] That is in line with the pre-match shape: Tennis Tonic listed Mrva as the stronger side on the opening line, with no prior head-to-head between the pair, so there is no historical matchup edge to lean on.[2][7] In that setting, the main read is form and level rather than any established rivalry. Mrva’s 2026 clay record was reported at 9-10, while he was 18-17 overall, which suggests a middling but workable baseline for Challenger clay.[2]

For traders, the key catalyst is whether the match is actually completed inside the settlement window, because a cancellation, a walkover-type non-start, or a delay beyond seven days would push the result to 50-50 under the market rules. Live listings showed the match already underway on 22 June, with Tennis.com and TennisLive both carrying score and statistical feeds, which reduces the risk of a void on scheduling grounds unless play is interrupted again.[1][4][8] The on-court numbers also matter more than the pre-match label: early service metrics showed both players trading breaks and neither holding serve with much authority, so any swing in double faults, first-serve percentage, or break-point conversion could still decide which player advances.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.