Tyler: Karl Poling vs Andre Ilagan

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Karl Poling and Andre Ilagan are scheduled to contest a professional tennis match in Tyler on 6 June 2026, with the market settling based on who advances from the encounter. The 0% implied probability suggests either substantial uncertainty about match completion or limited trading activity on this particular fixture at the lower professional tiers where both players compete.

Matches between relatively obscure professional players often trade at extreme probabilities due to thin liquidity and sparse historical data. Without established head-to-head records or widely publicised recent form, markets default to near-zero probabilities when one player lacks clear public information advantage. The seven-day grace period for delays without resolution provides some buffer against scheduling disruptions common in lower-tier professional circuits, though cancellations remain a material risk factor that would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause.

Traders should monitor Tyler tournament announcements for any withdrawal notices or schedule changes in the week preceding 6 June. Recent injury reports or ATP Challenger circuit standings would clarify current form, though such information rarely circulates widely for players outside the top 200. The settlement window closing on 13 June at 16:30 UTC provides a hard deadline; any match postponement beyond 13 June without a completed result automatically resolves to even odds. Confirmation of both players' participation and court assignment typically arrives 48 hours before the scheduled start time.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.