Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Roehampton: Yuta Shimizu vs Anton Matusevich Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Roehampton: Yuta Shimizu vs Anton Matusevich Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Roehampton: Yuta Shimizu vs Anton Matusevich Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Roehampton: Yuta Shimizu vs Anton Matusevich Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Roehampton: Yuta Shimizu vs Anton Matusevich Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Roehampton: Yuta Shimizu vs Anton Matusevich Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Roehampton: Yuta Shimizu vs Anton Matusevich Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Roehampton: Yuta Shimizu vs Anton Matusevich | 0% |
| Roehampton: Yuta Shimizu vs Anton Matusevich Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Roehampton: Yuta Shimizu vs Anton Matusevich Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Roehampton: Yuta Shimizu vs Anton Matusevich Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Roehampton: Yuta Shimizu vs Anton Matusevich Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Roehampton: Yuta Shimizu vs Anton Matusevich Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Roehampton: Yuta Shimizu vs Anton Matusevich Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Roehampton: Yuta Shimizu vs Anton Matusevich Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Yuta Shimizu and Anton Matusevich are scheduled to meet in a grass-court encounter at Roehampton on 17 August 2026. The 0% crowd probability reflects either minimal liquidity or strong consensus that one player will not compete. Roehampton, formally the Rothesay International Eastbourne, is a WTA 250 event held in the fortnight before the US Open, typically attracting mid-ranking professionals and occasional wildcards seeking grass preparation.
Shimizu, a Japanese right-hander, has competed sporadically on the WTA circuit with limited breakthrough results on grass. Matusevich, a Russian player, similarly lacks a pronounced grass-court record at elite level. The absence of a meaningful head-to-head history and both players' modest recent rankings suggest this fixture may represent a qualifying-round or early-round pairing rather than a main-draw clash. The 0% probability could indicate that one player has already withdrawn, failed to qualify, or is unlikely to accept a wild card invitation to this venue.
Traders should monitor official Roehampton entry lists and WTA rankings updates through late July 2026, as grass-court seasons often see late confirmations and injury-driven withdrawals. Withdrawal announcements, visa delays, or scheduling conflicts with other summer tournaments could trigger match cancellation before the 7-day grace period expires. The settlement window closes on 24 August, allowing a week's buffer beyond the original date; any postponement beyond that triggers a 50-50 resolution. Current odds suggest either player's participation remains uncertain rather than reflecting a clear form differential.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Roehampton: Yuta Shimizu vs Anton Matusevich. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Can I trade Premier League prediction markets from the UK?
- Yes. Polymarket has Premier League outcome markets (title winner, relegation, top scorer). For UK traders wanting GBP settlement and UKGC protection, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer Premier League futures and match markets. Betfair is the deepest liquidity venue for UK football exchange markets.
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