Estoril Open: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Luca Van Assche

Platform comparison

Market context

The Estoril Open match between Frederico Ferreira Silva and Luca Van Assche has already concluded, with the Frenchman securing a 7–5, 6–7(4), 6–1 victory on 20 July 2026[2][3]. This result means the prediction market resolving to “Luca Van Assche” is effectively settled, rendering the current 0% YES probability for Silva a reflection of the match’s completed status rather than a live trading opportunity[1][4].

Historically, markets that retain open settlement windows after a match finishes typically collapse to the outcome once official results are confirmed, especially in ATP events where data is rapidly verified by tournament officials[1][11]. Comparable cases in tennis prediction markets show that probabilities for the losing player drop to zero immediately post-match, with no meaningful reversal unless a formal retirement or disqualification is announced—neither of which occurred here[3][6].

Traders should monitor official ATP communications for any post-match appeals or rule-based reversals, though such events are exceptionally rare in standard singles matches[11]. With Van Assche’s win confirmed across multiple match-statistics sources and no indication of forfeiture or injury-related cancellation, the settlement is final[2][4]. The market’s 0% YES for Silva aligns with the factual outcome, and no further catalysts are expected to alter the resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Estoril Open: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Luca Van Assche. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.