Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Joaquin Aguilar

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the ATP Challenger Round 2 match in Piracicaba, Brazil, where Juan Bautista Torres faces Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo. Torres, ranked 281, recovered from a set deficit to defeat Alex Hernandez 3-6, 6-2, 6-0 in the opening round, scoring 30 winners and 93 total points[2][3]. Aguilar Cardozo, the Uruguayan opponent, has not dropped a set yet, recording 26 winners and a higher percentage of winners relative to points (39% vs Torres’s 32%) in his single match[2]. Despite Torres’s aggressive play, the match has already concluded with Aguilar Cardozo winning 1-3 (sets 34-66), indicating the market’s 100% YES probability for Torres advancing is factually incorrect given the completed result[5].

Historically, markets assigning 100% certainty to a player advancing after a loss are rare and typically signal a settlement error or misaligned resolution condition, as seen in prior Challenger events where cancelled matches triggered 50-50 splits rather than forced outcomes[1]. In this case, the match was completed on 25 June 2026, with Aguilar Cardozo defeating Torres, meaning Torres did not advance[5][7]. Traders should monitor official ATP Tour announcements confirming the match result and any potential rescheduling or protest filings that might alter the resolution, though no such dependencies are currently active[6]. A recent Tennis.com report confirms the final score and player statistics, solidifying the outcome[5]. No line-up changes or suspensions are reported, and the settlement window remains open until 2026-07-02, but the factual result negates the YES position.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.