ITF Rochester: Maxime St-Hilaire vs Joaquim Almeida

Platform comparison

Market context

The ITF Men’s Rochester match between Maxime St-Hilaire and Joaquim Almeida, originally set for 15 July 2026 at 5:00 PM ET, has already passed without a result being recorded, explaining the crowd-implied 0% probability for St-Hilaire to advance. Both players were entering the tournament as debutants in Rochester, with Almeida holding a stronger recent record—three wins in his last five matches—compared to St-Hilaire’s single win in five [2]. No prior head-to-head exists between the two, marking their first professional encounter [1].

Historically, ITF M15 events with unplayed debut matches often resolve as voids or 50-50 settlements when no winner is determined within seven days, aligning with this market’s tie clause. The 0% YES probability suggests the market treats the match as effectively cancelled or abandoned, consistent with past cases where players failed to appear due to injury or scheduling conflicts at lower-tier tournaments.

Traders should monitor official ITF announcements for confirmation of cancellation or postponement, as well as any injury updates from either player’s camp. Almeida’s 75% win rate over the last 12 months versus St-Hilaire’s 40% [1] would normally favour the Brazilian, but the absence of a played match overrides form. No recent news source has confirmed a reason for the non-play, so the settlement hinges on the tournament’s official ruling within the seven-day window.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for ITF Rochester: Maxime St-Hilaire vs Joaquim Almeida. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.