Roland Garros WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Dayana Yastremska

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Jasmine Paolini faces Dayana Yastremska in a Roland Garros women's singles match scheduled for 24 May 2026. Paolini, the Italian world number 4, reached the French Open final in 2024 and has maintained consistent top-10 ranking throughout 2025-26. Yastremska, the Ukrainian player ranked around 30th, has shown improved form on clay but remains significantly lower-seeded. The 100% implied probability reflects Paolini's superior ranking, recent clay-court results, and established pedigree at Roland Garros, where she has progressed beyond early rounds in consecutive years.

Head-to-head records between players of this ranking disparity typically favour the higher-ranked competitor, particularly on clay where Paolini's baseline consistency and movement patterns have proven effective. Yastremska's aggressive style can trouble top players on faster surfaces, but Roland Garros' slower courts and longer rallies generally suit Paolini's game. The Ukrainian has not posted significant clay-court victories against top-10 opposition in recent seasons, making an upset unlikely given the surface conditions and tournament context.

Traders should monitor injury reports through to the settlement window closure on 31 May. Any withdrawal announcements or late scheduling changes would trigger the 50-50 tie-break clause. Weather delays at Roland Garros occasionally compress the schedule; if the match is postponed beyond seven days without completion, the market resolves neutral. Paolini's fitness status heading into late May will be the primary variable affecting settlement, given her demanding schedule across spring tournaments.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.