Makarska: Lola Radivojevic vs Mia Ristic

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

A women's tennis match between Lola Radivojevic and Mia Ristic is scheduled for the Makarska tournament on 3 June 2026, with the market settlement window closing on 10 June. The 100% implied probability for Radivojevic suggests either strong conviction in her advancement or limited market liquidity at this early stage. Both players compete primarily on the ITF and lower-tier WTA circuits, where form fluctuates considerably week to week and head-to-head records carry limited predictive weight given the infrequency of repeat matchups.

The settlement terms carry material risk: any cancellation, delay beyond seven days without completion, or retirement mid-match triggers a 50-50 split. Makarska tournaments have historically experienced weather disruptions in early June, particularly afternoon scheduling conflicts with coastal conditions. The original 4:00 AM ET start time (unusual for women's tennis) suggests either a broadcast accommodation or scheduling constraint that may itself indicate organisational uncertainty around the event's stability.

Traders should monitor tournament confirmation announcements in late May and any player withdrawal notices, which typically emerge 10–14 days before competition. Recent ITF results for both players should be tracked through the WTA database; Radivojevic's recent form and Ristic's fitness status are the primary variables that would justify the current extreme probability. The seven-day grace period before forced resolution creates a window where match delays could materially alter outcomes, making fixture stability a critical watch point through the settlement deadline.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.