Trump out as President by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump faces a low but non-zero risk of permanent removal from the presidency before July 31, 2026, driven primarily by the outcome of the November 2026 midterms. The president has explicitly warned that losing control of the House would trigger impeachment efforts, stating, “if don’t win the midterms, it’s just going to be — I mean, they’ll find a reason to impeach me. I’ll be impeached”[3]. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 1% YES, reflecting the structural difficulty of removing a president when his party retains congressional majorities.

Historically, permanent removal requires a two-thirds majority in both chambers of Congress following impeachment by the House, a threshold never met in US history for any president[5]. The 25th Amendment offers an alternative route for incapacity, but Section 4 invocation demands consensus from the Vice President and Cabinet or a congressional body, followed by a two-thirds vote to sustain removal—making temporary invocations far more plausible than permanent ousters[5]. Kalshi’s prediction markets recently estimated Trump’s removal probability at nearly 28.7% for his second term overall, though that figure includes the full term beyond this market’s cutoff[2].

Traders should monitor the November midterm results, any escalation in Trump’s rhetoric regarding Iran or the Strait of Hormuz, and shifts in Democratic congressional strategy following his recent threats[4]. A Democratic win in the House would immediately elevate removal odds, while continued Republican control would likely keep probabilities near current lows. Recent polling indicates growing voter support for impeachment, including one in five Republican voters, which could influence legislative behaviour if political pressure intensifies[8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Trump out as President by July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.