Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 100% |
| Mohammed bin Salman | 100% |
| Vladimir Putin | 100% |
| Keir Starmer | 100% |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa | 100% |
| Mark Rutte | 100% |
| Friedrich Merz | 100% |
| Mark Carney | 100% |
| Andy Burnham | 100% |
| Emmanuel Macron | 60% |
| Ursula von der Leyen | 33% |
| Lula da Silva | 7% |
| Elon Musk | 4% |
| Nicolás Maduro | 1% |
| Reza Pahlavi | 1% |
| Kim Jong Un | 1% |
| Xi Jinping | 1% |
| Maria Corina Machado | 1% |
| Masoud Pezeshkian | 1% |
| Pope Leo XIV | 1% |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel | 1% |
| Yoon Suk Yeol | 0% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 0% |
Market context
Donald Trump has remained highly visible in July 2026, with a run of public meetings and travel that makes further July encounters plausible, but the market still needs a specific reported conversation to pay out. Reuters reported that he met Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Benjamin Netanyahu on 28 July, and the White House also listed a Cabinet meeting at Camp David on 31 July, showing that his schedule has continued to generate direct in-person contact rather than only staged remarks.[3][12]
The 1% crowd price is consistent with how narrow these markets usually are when the question is about a named person and a one-month window: without a pre-announced meeting, most outcomes fail even when the president is active. Comparable July events this year included the NATO summit in Ankara, where Reuters said Trump was scheduled to meet Zelenskyy and the White House confirmed bilateral sessions, illustrating that confirmed diary items matter far more than general political activity.[7][10] Past late-month White House and summit engagements also show that unexpected add-ons can appear quickly, but they are usually visible first in official schedules or pool reporting.[5][12]
The key catalysts now are any late July/August readouts confirming who was at the Cabinet session, who attended side meetings at Camp David, and whether any July travel produced informal bilateral contact that was later reported. For traders, the most relevant signals are White House releases, pool schedules, and wire copy on Trump’s post-summit or domestic meetings, because Reuters-style event reporting has been the main route to confirming these interactions this month.[1][3][12]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Who will Trump speak to in July?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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