2026 U.S. Open: To Make the Cut

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 126th U.S. Open is currently underway at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club, with the 36-hole cut being decided today as the top 60 players and ties advance to the final 36 holes. The tournament, running from 18 to 21 June, features a field of 156 competitors battling for a $22.5 million prize fund, yet the market implies a listed player has zero chance of making this critical threshold. This probability reflects the player’s likely absence from the field or a form so poor that qualifying for the weekend round is statistically impossible under current conditions.

Historically, markets assigning 0% probability to cut-making have resolved correctly when players were either disqualified, failed to qualify for the event, or suffered injuries that prevented participation before the first round. Comparable cases from recent majors show that even high-profile names like Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau missed the cut at Shinnecock in 2026 due to high scores and penalties, reinforcing how difficult this venue is[2]. When a player is not in the field or has a scorecard that places them well outside the top 60, the market’s zero-implied probability aligns with the tournament’s strict cut rules[5].

Traders should monitor official PGA TOUR announcements regarding player eligibility, injury updates, and any late withdrawals that could alter the cut line dynamics. The PGA TOUR confirmed the cut will include the low 60 scores and ties after two rounds, with no further cut before the final day[5]. Any news source reporting a player’s withdrawal or failure to qualify before the tournament begins would solidify the market’s resolution to “No”. With the cut day already in progress, the window for a listed player to enter the field or improve their standing has effectively closed, leaving no catalyst to shift the probability from zero.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track 2026 U.S. Open: To Make the Cut on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.