Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Platform comparison

Market context

Global temperatures in 2026 are tracking to remain among the hottest years since 1850, with early data confirming January and May as fifth and second-warmest months on record respectively [3][8]. The World Meteorological Organization projects that one year between 2026 and 2030 will likely surpass 2024 as the warmest ever, though 2026 itself faces cooling pressure from ongoing La Niña conditions [1].

Historical modelling from Berkeley Earth suggests 2026 will most likely rank as the fourth warmest year, assigning a 51% probability to that outcome while keeping the chance of a first-place finish at just 10% [2]. This aligns with the current crowd-implied 34% probability for a top-three finish, as natural ocean cooling patterns have recently begun to dampen record-breaking potential compared to the extreme warmth of 2023 and 2024 [2].

Traders should monitor the full-year Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index release, expected late 2026, which will definitively settle the numerical rank [2]. Key dependencies include the persistence of La Niña through the second half of the year and any unexpected shifts in Arctic temperature anomalies, which the WMO notes are expected to remain higher than the global mean [1]. The final resolution will occur immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of later revisions [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.