Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam's highest temperature on 15 August 2026 will be measured at Schiphol Airport weather station and resolved against the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground, with settlement occurring at midday UTC on that date. The market currently shows 0% implied probability, suggesting traders expect temperatures to fall below the lowest available range bracket.

August temperatures at Schiphol typically peak between 20–24°C, with historical data from the past decade showing only three instances of readings exceeding 25°C during mid-August. The 2003 European heat wave produced an Amsterdam high of 30.3°C on 8 August, but such extremes remain statistical outliers. Recent summers have been warmer than the 1991–2020 baseline, yet August 15 specifically has not consistently delivered the month's hottest days; the seasonal peak often occurs earlier or later in the month.

Traders monitoring this market should track European weather patterns from early August, particularly Atlantic pressure systems and any developing high-pressure zones over continental Europe. The Dutch meteorological institute (KNMI) publishes extended forecasts from mid-July onwards. Any significant heatwave warnings issued for northern Europe in the weeks preceding the settlement date would shift expectations materially. The 0% probability suggests the crowd has priced in either a typical summer day or cooler-than-average conditions; material shifts would require forecasts indicating exceptional heat for that specific date, which remains uncommon for mid-August in the Netherlands.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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