Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol’s highest temperature on 30 July will be settled from the day’s peak reading at the airport station, so the market is really a call on whether conditions in western Netherlands can push above the seasonal norm. July in Amsterdam typically tops out around 22°C, with daily highs usually in the upper teens to low 20s Celsius, while the all-time July record at Amsterdam is far higher at 32°C, showing that a very hot outcome is possible but uncommon.[8][9][10]

The current 0% yes probability looks detached from the live pricing on the broader temperature bands, where the market is clustered around 25°C and 26°C and still assigns non-trivial odds to a spread from 23°C up to the upper 20s.[1] That profile fits a warm-summer setup rather than a cold one: anything near or above 30°C would require a clear hot-air plume, while a result in the low-to-mid 20s would remain much closer to the historical July average.[5][9][10]

For traders, the main catalysts are the afternoon forecast updates for Schiphol, especially cloud cover, wind off the North Sea, and whether any convective showers arrive early enough to cap the day’s maximum. Schiphol sits on open, low-lying terrain, so onshore flow and maritime air can blunt heat more quickly than inland stations, while a dry, sunny spell can still allow the temperature to edge towards the upper 20s.[12][14] The resolution window closes at 12:00 UTC, so the key question is whether the peak is reached before midday or continues to rise into the early afternoon.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.