Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol is likely to be warm but not extreme on 31 July, with forecast highs around **26°C** and only a small chance of drizzle, which points to a fairly tight ceiling rather than a breakout heat spike.[2] The market resolves on the *highest* temperature recorded at Schiphol during the day, so an early afternoon peak matters more than the evening finish; by late July, Amsterdam’s typical July high is only about **22°C**, with average daily highs in the low 20s rather than heatwave territory.[7][11][18]

That is why a **0% YES** price can be read as the crowd treating the upper temperature bands as effectively out of play. Historical July comparables also lean mild: Amsterdam’s long-run July record high is well above normal at **36.4°C**, but it is a one-off extreme, while typical late-July readings sit far closer to the low-to-mid 20s.[9][11] In practical terms, the market needs an exceptional warm advection event or unusually strong sunshine to push the airport’s peak far beyond forecast norms.

The main catalysts to watch are any last-minute revisions to the Schiphol forecast, especially changes in cloud cover, wind direction, and afternoon precipitation timing, because those directly affect the day’s maximum.[2] Any shift towards clearer skies and lighter winds would raise the chance of a higher peak, while persistent cloud and drizzle would cap it lower. The settlement source is Wunderground’s daily history page for Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, so intraday updates there are the most relevant dependency for traders.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

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How fast do sports winnings settle?

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