Highest temperature in Beijing on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing Capital International Airport is likely to record a warm, humid high on 23 July, with the key variable being whether cloud and rain hold temperatures down or allow a brief midday push towards the upper end of the usual July range. July in Beijing is typically warm, with average temperatures often running from about 23°C to 31°C, and it is also one of the wetter months, so convective showers can cap the day’s maximum even when the broader summer pattern is hot.[2]

That backdrop makes a zero-priced “yes” outcome look detached from the normal distribution for this date, but it does not imply an outlier is impossible. The market reference itself shows the crowd clustering around 28–31°C, with 28°C currently the front-runner and 27°C the next closest, which fits a forecast set-up where cloud timing and rainfall matter more than a large shift in the air mass.[1] For comparison, Beijing summer highs usually sit in the high 20s to low 30s, so the contract is being priced around a fairly standard July outcome rather than a heatwave extreme.[2]

The main catalysts are the same ones that move airport-temperature markets: the latest short-range forecast for Beijing, any revised rain timing, and whether afternoon sunshine breaks through long enough to lift the peak reading before the daily cooling trend begins. The settlement source is the Beijing Capital International Airport Station history page on Wunderground, and the market rules say revisions count until the first datapoint for the following day is published, so late-day updates can still matter if a new high is recorded before rollover.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on July 23?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.