Highest temperature in Busan on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan’s reading at Gimhae International Airport on 1 August is usually decided by summer heat and moisture rather than any single outlier event. August is the city’s hottest month on average, with typical highs around 30°C to 31°C and muggy conditions that keep afternoon temperatures elevated, while climate summaries for Busan put August highs broadly in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius.[4][7][15]

The market’s current 0% YES price is hard to square with Busan’s recent temperature profile, because the city has just come through an exceptional late-July heat spike: Busan reached 38.8°C on 29 July, its highest recorded temperature since observations began in 1904.[16][19] That does not make another extreme top reading inevitable, but it does show that the regional airmass has recently been capable of producing values well above normal summer levels, which matters for any market settled on the day’s maximum rather than the daily average.[16][19]

For traders, the main catalyst is whether the hot spell persists into 1 August or is cut off by cloud, rain or a sea-breeze reversal. Busan’s August climatology includes meaningful rainfall and high humidity, so a wet, less sunny day would cap the maximum more effectively than a dry inland-style heat day; local weather histories also show that 1 August has typically sat around the mid-30s °C peak range rather than near record territory.[1][4][17] Since settlement uses the highest temperature recorded at Gimhae Intl Airport Station on that date, intraday updates from the airport station and any forecast revisions for afternoon heating will matter most.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Busan on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.