Highest temperature in Busan on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan’s temperature on 10 August is being judged against the highest reading at Gimhae International Airport, not the headline daily high, so the key question is whether the station pushes into the 30–32°C bands or stays in the upper 20s. Seasonal context points to a warm, humid late-summer setup: August normals for Busan are around 26.8–27°C, with average highs near 29–30°C, while climate records for 10 August show an all-time maximum of 34.6°C, so the market’s current 0% implied YES is only consistent if traders expect no meaningful heating beyond the low 30s.[7][6][19][1]

That framing matters because this week has already delivered exceptional heat across South Korea, including a national record 42.5°C in Yangsan on Sunday, with Busan also mentioned among cities seeing temperatures in the high 30s during the same spell.[11] Forecasts for Busan still lean hot but not extreme: AccuWeather’s 10-day outlook shows 86–87°F highs, mostly cloudy or thundery early, with an elevated chance of precipitation and NE winds, which would tend to cap the upside if cloud and showers arrive on time.[9][13][2] The main catalysts are the morning evolution of cloud cover and any convective rain near Gimhae, because the settlement window ends at noon UTC and Weather Underground’s daily observations can keep updating until the first datapoint for the following date is published.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Busan on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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